In Victoria, Toyota’s 4WDs, utes and vans are the stolen vehicles least likely to come back. Of 4,740 vehicles stolen from 2 June to 31 August 2026, 33.5% were still missing at the end of August, but 45.4% of LandCruisers, 40.3% of Prados and 40.0% of HiLuxes were, against 23.5% of Corollas.
Everyone publishes lists of the most stolen cars, and we have done it ourselves (for which areas see vehicle theft in Victoria).
Those lists never answer the question that actually matters to an owner: once your car is gone, does it come back?
The answer depends on what you drive, and the gap between models is enormous.
Contents
- Where did we get this data from?
- Which stolen cars are least likely to be recovered?
- Isn’t Toyota simply the most stolen brand?
- 1) Toyota LandCruiser, 45.4% still missing
- 2) Toyota HiAce, 41.2% still missing
- 3) Toyota Prado, 40.3% still missing
- 4) Toyota HiLux, 40.0% still missing
- The other half of the badge
- Then there is the Subaru WRX
- What this means for you
- Conclusion
Where did we get this data from?
We pulled every theft reported to the Victoria Police stolen-vehicle register between 2 June and 31 August 2026, a total of 4,740 stolen vehicles.
Then we compared the vehicles still listed as OUTSTANDING against those marked CLEARED.
Across the whole register, 33.5% of stolen vehicles were still missing at the end of August, and that figure is our baseline.
“Still missing” here means still missing as of 31 August, which is not a lifetime recovery rate.
A car stolen in late August has had a few weeks to turn up, while one stolen in June has had all winter, so the absolute percentages overstate how many cars never come back.
Every model shares the same three-month window, however, so the comparison between models holds. That is the part that matters.
Source:
Victoria Police stolen-vehicle register, every theft reported from 2 June to 31 August 2026 (4,740 vehicles), with each record’s OUTSTANDING or CLEARED status as at 31 August 2026.
Some models sit well above it and some sit well below it. The odd part is that the top and the bottom of the list wear the same badge.
Which stolen cars are least likely to be recovered?
Toyota’s LandCruiser, HiAce, Prado and HiLux, each between 6.5 and 11.8 points above the 33.5% baseline. Toyota’s Corolla, RAV4 and Camry sit 10 to 12 points below it.
| Model | Stolen | Still missing | vs baseline (33.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota LandCruiser / LC200 | 119 | 45.4% | +11.8 |
| Toyota HiAce | 34 | 41.2% | +7.6 |
| Toyota Prado | 144 | 40.3% | +6.7 |
| Toyota HiLux | 200 | 40.0% | +6.5 |
| Toyota Corolla | 293 | 23.5% | −10.0 |
| Toyota RAV4 | 154 | 22.1% | −11.5 |
| Toyota Camry | 96 | 21.9% | −11.7 |
| Subaru WRX / Impreza | 56 | 8.9% | −24.6 |
Isn’t Toyota simply the most stolen brand?
By volume, yes, but that is the wrong measure. There is a statistic we could have led with: about a quarter of the cars Victoria cannot find right now are Toyotas.
It sounds alarming, and it is also misleading.
Toyota tops that list because Toyota tops the roads, so there are simply more of them to steal.
Toyota’s overall still-missing rate is 29.8%, which is below the 33.5% baseline, because all those recovered Corollas and RAV4s drag the average down.
The real story is not the badge but the split inside it, because Toyota is not one story at all. It is two opposite ones.
Toyota’s 4WDs, utes and vans account for 497 thefts, of which 41.4% were still missing at the end of August. Toyota’s passenger cars are recovered more often than the average car on the register.
Same badge, opposite outcomes. The ranking below uses the rate that matters, which is how often each model was still missing at the end of August.
1) Toyota LandCruiser, 45.4% still missing
119 LandCruisers were reported stolen over winter, and nearly half were still missing at the end of August.
That is the worst rate of any model in the dataset, 11.8 points above baseline.
It makes grim sense, because a LandCruiser is worth serious money whole and rather more in pieces.
Nobody steals an LC200 for a lap of the suburbs. It is taken by someone with a plan, whether that is a shipping container, a rebirth, or a parts operation.
A car with a plan behind it does not get dumped in a Kmart car park.
2) Toyota HiAce, 41.2% still missing
34 HiAces were stolen over the period, and two in five of them are still gone.
A HiAce is a working vehicle, and it is also a large metal box that can carry the rest of what a thief takes.
Only 34 HiAces were stolen, so the exact figure deserves a grain of salt, but the direction fits the pattern.
3) Toyota Prado, 40.3% still missing
Of the 144 Prados stolen over the period, 40.3% are still missing.
It is the same family as the LandCruiser and it meets the same fate, with strong resale value, strong demand for parts, and a thriving market overseas. A Prado that disappears is more likely than most to still be missing weeks later.
4) Toyota HiLux, 40.0% still missing
The tradie’s best mate is also the volume leader in this group, with 200 stolen in three months and 40% of them still out there somewhere at the end of August.
The HiLux has been a fixture on Australia’s most-stolen lists for years.
What the volume lists do not tell you is that when a HiLux goes, the odds of it coming home are well below average.
For a tradie that is not only the ute, but the tools, the racks and the next fortnight of work gone with it.
The other half of the badge
Toyota Corolla, 23.5% still missing
The Corolla was the single most stolen model on the register at 293 thefts, yet more than three in four had come back by the end of August.
A Corolla gets stolen because it is there, not because someone wants it, so it gets driven, run out of use, and left somewhere for police to find.
Toyota RAV4, 22.1% still missing
Of 154 stolen, nearly 78% had been recovered by the end of August. Australia’s favourite family SUV is not what the professionals are after.
Toyota Camry, 21.9% still missing
The Camry has the best recovery rate of any Toyota, with 96 stolen and only 21 still outstanding. If your Camry is taken, the odds are firmly on your side.
Then there is the Subaru WRX
The sharpest contrast in the entire dataset is not a Toyota at all.
The Subaru WRX and Impreza sit at 8.9% still missing, meaning 91% had been recovered by the end of August.
The WRX is a car famous for being stolen, and it is also the car you are most likely to get back.
56 WRXs and Imprezas were stolen over the period and only 5 were still missing at the end of August, so the sample is small, but the gap to every Toyota is wide.
A WRX is not stolen for a shipping container, it is stolen for the drive, so it gets taken, thrashed and dumped. The thief was never planning to keep it.
The LandCruiser at the top of the list is the opposite, and it does not get dumped because it was never taken for the drive.
What this means for you
Two different crimes are hiding inside the words “car theft”, and the trend behind both is covered in why car theft is rising again.
One is a joyride, which is annoying and expensive, but the car usually turns up scuffed, out of fuel and smelling like someone else’s night out.
The other is a business, and anyone driving a LandCruiser, Prado, HiLux or HiAce is that business’s target market.
When one of those goes the odds of getting it back are below average, because the window to find it is the first day or two, before it reaches a container or a hoist.
- Driving a Toyota 4WD, ute or van means assuming the thief has a plan, so have a better one
- Driving a Corolla, RAV4 or Camry puts the odds in your favour, though about a quarter were still missing at the end of August
- Driving a WRX means you will statistically get it back, although its condition is another question
Conclusion
The most-stolen lists tell you whether thieves want your car, while this list tells you how likely you are to get it back. Trailers fare worst of all: see stolen trailers that are never recovered.
For anyone in the 40%-plus club, the difference between OUTSTANDING and CLEARED usually comes down to one thing: whether anyone knew where the car went in those first few hours.
That is exactly the job a hidden tracker does. The thief drives off with your pride and joy, and your phone quietly watches them do it.
If your car is one of the models least likely to come back on its own, a car GPS tracker gives it a way to tell you where it is.
If your car is one thieves keep, a GPS tracker shows you where it went. Trusted by 30,000+ drivers.
